Will Gus Malzahn, UCF football rebound in 2024? Here are 3 reasons for skepticism
Chris BoyleORLANDO — After previously looking at all the positives surrounding UCF's football team this fall, it's time to view the glass half empty.
The Knights, picked to finish right in the middle of the 16-team Big 12 pack in the conference's preseason media poll, waited two months to celebrate its first league win last year. They scraped bowl eligibility by beating Houston on the final weekend of the regular season before a humbling loss to Georgia Tech in the Gasparilla Bowl, cementing a losing record for the first time in Gus Malzahn's college coaching career.
Malzahn made major shifts to his coaching staff, hiring a pair of new coordinators (Tim Harris Jr. on offense, and Ted Roof on defense) in addition to welcoming Trovon Reed as cornerbacks coach. The roster features more than 40 new players, a combination of additions from the transfer portal and high schools, predominantly in Florida and Georgia.
Pessimism sounds like too harsh a word for preseason prognostication, so here are three reasons to be skeptical that the Knights will enjoy a sudden turnaround and push for the Big 12 title in 2024.
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1. The defense, even with new parts, has to prove it can stop the run
Among UCF's top priorities this offseason was fixing a defense that ranked in the bottom 10 of college football in stopping the run. Malzahn hired former Auburn colleague Roof as defensive coordinator, and the Knights will field at least seven new starters compared to last year's opener against Kent State.
New linebackers Ethan Barr and Deshawn Pace are multi-year starters from fellow Power Four programs, safety/nickelback Ladarius Tennison has four seasons of SEC experience under his belt, and both defensive end Daylan Dotson and safety Sheldon Arnold earned All-American recognition at the Football Championship Subdivision level.
Aggression has been the buzz word around camp when describing the defense, but it's fair to assume it will take some time for all the new pieces to fit into a cohesive unit. Time's not necessarily on UCF's side, either, considering TCU and Colorado, with their potent passing attacks, are on the schedule in the opening month.
"I think it's been clear and it's been consistent," Roof said Wednesday when asked about the unit's communication through eight practices. "Like anything else, we always want to get better at it, but we're moving in a good direction."
Roof's Oklahoma defense ranked fourth in scoring, seventh in total defense and third against the run in the Big 12 in 2023. Additionally, the Sooners were 14th nationally on third down. During his first season in 2022, however, the Sooners were 87th or worse in the FBS in all four statistical categories.
For UCF to simply win games, its defense must complement what should be a high-powered offense. For it to crack the league's upper echelon, the unit must be able to dominate for significant stretches of the season.
2. Special teams struggles could make difference in close games
An inability to stuff the run drew most of the attention for why the Knights stumbled to a 6-7 record last fall, including five consecutive Big 12 losses. But, another major weakness for UCF was its special teams.
The coverage units allowed opposing returners to gain 22.8 yards per kickoff return (110th in FBS) and 11.8 yards per punt (107th). Trevor Wilson's 82-yard punt return for a touchdown cemented a 21-point third quarter for Kansas as the Jayhawks blew out UCF 51-22 last October.
By comparison, the Knights finished 60th in punt return average (9.2) and 35th on kickoff returns (21.8).
"I do think that last year, after doing a deep dive into our issues, some of our issues were size. We didn't have guys that were big enough to go down there and take on blocks, especially in the cover units," said Brian Blackmon, UCF's tight ends coach and special teams coordinator. "From a return standpoint, I just think we made some poor decisions. We were really aggressive in the punt game trying to get some blocks, which didn't work out the way we wanted it to. We've got Xavier Townsend back there, and we've got to do a better job in the return game."
Colton Boomer missed eight field goal attempts in UCF's final nine games and clanked a game-tying PAT off the upright at Texas Tech. He consistently outperformed Grant Reddick in practice since the midway point of last season, Blackmon said, and held the job in spite of his first stretch of collegiate adversity.
As for punting, the Knights ranked dead last in the Big 12 at 35.8 net yards per kick, nearly two yards worse than any other team in the league. Mitch McCarthy averaged 41.4 yards per punt, but only five of the Australian's 37 punts topped the 50-yard mark and only nine landed inside the opponents' 20 (second-fewest among Big 12 punters).
"We've got to be better. It was unacceptable what we did last year from a special teams standpoint. We did nothing to help our team win," Blackmon said.
3. Virtually every Big 12 game — and Florida — is a coin flip, at best
Oklahoma and Texas' departures for greener pastures in the SEC leaves the field wide open in the Big 12 with no established blueblood or dominant national football brand in the fold. Each of the league's 16 teams can feel justified in August believing 'Why not us?' in regards to grabbing the available automatic College Football Playoff bid.
Therein lies another reason for skepticism: After the second week of the season, every game projects to be a toss-up.
The Knights' road woes under Gus Malzahn are well documented, a 7-9 record highlighted by egregious defeats at Navy and East Carolina in 2022, a near-meltdown at one-win South Florida and a 1-4 mark against Big 12 foes in '23. UCF logs less than half the air miles it did a year ago, but it projects as underdogs in four of their five trips (TCU, Florida, Iowa State and West Virginia).
As for the home slate, Colorado will be no picnic and the hype surrounding the Bounce House should be immense with Deion Sanders' squad making its first appearance. Arizona and Utah are loaded with talent and among the league's preseason favorites, each garnering first-place votes. Longtime rival Cincinnati and BYU are the perceived weaker teams set to visit Orlando, but both will be desperate to prove their disappointing Big 12 debuts were outliers as opposed to troubling trends.
BetMGM sets the line at 7½ wins for UCF, a number that suggests the Knights should go bowling and be a tough out any given Saturday. But that number also demonstrates the ceiling might not yet reach championship-level heights.